Post 7 "What the US can learn from Japan"
Japan and the US are very different culturally. Where the Japanese are more nationalistic, the US is clearly multicultural. In Japan, politeness, order, rule-following and process are the way. In America, friction, freewheeling styles and disruption are the norm. Where the two country's overlap is in a high standard of living and significant aggregated wealth.
As stated in Post 6, the Japanese created immense wealth in the 1970s and 1980s. Japan, today, seems to equate with a very wealthy person who has been living off of their core wealth for a number of decades, unable to ramp up past high earning patterns. In essence they are asset rich and earnings poor. The Japanese are very smart and hard working people. And there are many entrepreneurs and freethinkers. There is just not an abundance of them.
I greatly appreciate most elements of Japanese culture and society - their consideration for others in Japan is impressive; the whole is more important than the individual; honor and relationship are of utmost importance; hard work and diligence is expected; senior citizens are revered; collaboration, coordination and teamwork are of paramount importance and the list goes on. So why is their economic stagnation of epic proportions?
Japan has a well-intentioned governmental bureaucracy. Even with all of their "good intentions", the prolonged stagnation of their economy is predominantly due to the Japanese government squeezing out the proper evolution of free market principles (and the masses politely supporting that path). In addition, the government's quest to protect the "home market" and in particular the banking system has led to essentially zero economic growth for a long time. Interestingly, given the politeness and the aggregated utilitarian view of the Japanese people, the economic malaise that has existed for decades doesn't show up in protest or overt citizen unrest.
So what lessons can we learn in the US? There are many positive lessons the US can learn from Japan, but I will cover those ideas in future posts. What I am going to cover presently are some powerful trends in America that are very similar to what has been at the core of Japan's stagnation. These are the most critical lessons to help the US produce more robust growth and more importantly to help close the Have...Have/Not gap.
Here are the lessons we should learn from Japan:
1. Too much government insertion and influence is not good. Overtime in the US as the ratio of government sway and leverage over the American people tips past 50% vs. free market enterprise, the US economy will stagnate further; Have--Have/Not gap grows; our "turnaround" becomes more difficult.
2. Don't over-manage and over-protect our citizens and markets. Competition is good and makes us stronger, more knowledgeable and more capable. There are two main types of protection I'm speaking about: firstly, is economic protectionism and secondly, is Uncle Sam is over nurturing citizen. Economic protectionism may make a situation look better in the short term but it diminishes the competitiveness of a country, industry or company in the long term. Protectionism creates complacency. Secondly, a helping hand for those in need is a given. But continuous and life long "protection" ends up hurting Have-Nots. They don’t learn to do it on their own. The old adage "give a person a fish and they can feed their family for a day, teach a person to fish and they can feed a family for life" rings true in the real world. I would add in: why stop at teaching the parent to fish, teach the whole family to fish and encourage them to learn other skills.
3. Don't keep the US citizens in the dark. In Japan, it is important to be polite and not stick out. Everyone must "follow" along and stay in line with the overall governmental/societal plan. "Don't rock the boat." In the US there is more of a melting pot of individual thought but not as much as you might think. In the US we need an overhauled education model to prepare young people/citizens to have a more dynamic vision and understanding of the United States and the world. The vast majority of our citizens are educated in public schools (by definition -controlled by the government). Public education makes up over 90% of the education model in America. The lions share of important "Have lessons" are not taught there. Also, other important life lessons are not taught across our country in public or even private schools. "Not rocking the boat" of education will produce the same stunted individualized effect that we see in Japan.
4. Japanese culture produces an idea crushing internal politeness. Friction is good. However the kind of friction we have at the federal government level between Democrats and Republicans is not healthy friction. It is more staged and theatrical with the attempted effect of trying to hoodwink and "red herring" (distract) the masses. For example, "we are helping you and protecting you" - translation-"we are here to take care of ourselves and we are trying to look smart and we are fooling you - the people".
The US politician-driven insertion of the government into our daily lives continues unyieldingly every day. There is a gradualism to it that to the naked eye makes it look and appear normal. Crisis can help to dramatically accelerate the US governments "help" it provides. Politicians love a crisis as it helps them to appear to "be desperately needed" by the American people. Have's are the biggest beneficiaries. This governmental "creep" or sometimes "dramatic advance" occurs at the federal, state, county and local municipal level every day, every year, every decade. Essentially the message to the American people is that we are incapable of helping ourselves or maybe we are too dumb and need our elected leaders to guide their "flock of sheep". American society bounces from problem to problem and the end game is that government/politicians win and the average citizen becomes more beholden to them. The issues/problems become so grand and complex that we as citizens debate amongst ourselves without really understanding the vastness and growing complexity of the situation. Then we watch politicians (attempting to appear helpful) inject themselves only to create more problems. The mess our US healthcare system is in is a perfect example of this.
Chaos, complexity and confusion amped with some highly charged emotion and some sensationalized media reporting leads to citizens (typically Have-Nots) throwing their hands up and essentially giving up trying to understand what is going on and then allowing politicians to continue down their self-serving path. Wow, this sounds a little rant like. LOL. It is not a rant. Many Haves know what is going on and see the chaos, complexity and confusion as an opportunity. These posts are not a rant but someone pulling back the curtain to show what is really going on. My goal is to lay out a clear picture of some important topics/issues that play a significant role in all citizens’ lives. Then I will lay out an optimized fix/adjustment/overhaul of each of these topics/issues.
I'll keep repeating this: you may not like Trump. You may despise him. You may disagree with him. You may cringe at the way he presents his ideas. But he is one of the best chances we have at changing the unhealthy, government/politician dominated path we are on in America. Ignore the person and focus on the "rocking of the boat" and changing the paradigm dynamic.
Best DP
JAA Post 6A Short Version - "Japan hasn't been able to get in gear...for 30 years!"
Japan's economy boomed for decades up to 1989.
Japan's economy has stagnated since then.
The "Bubble" burst due to over-leveraging plus excess speculation followed by lost financial market and overall economic confidence.
Japan has stagnated economically for 25+ years because of: a) too much government influence (thinking it is doing the "right" thing) squeezes out and limits Japan's private sector capabilities; b) true creativity and entrepreneurship is limited and uneven; c) protected home financial markets led to weakened credit pricing and therefore less efficient capital movements; d) limited restructuring expertise.
One item not mentioned in Post 6 is the fact that the politeness of Japanese culture makes the confrontation of the above issues hard to address.
Post 7 will focus on the important lessons the US can learn from Japan.
Post 6 - "Japan hasn't been able to get in gear...for 30 years!"
Japan's economy has languished for a long time. It's been so many decades that most Americans under the age of 40 don't remember the high flying days of the Japanese economy from the mid-1970s through the late 1980's. The Japanese business "miracle" came crashing down in 1989-1992. How could it be close to 30 years of malaise for one of the largest economies in the world? Interestingly, Japan has still maintained it's position as the second or third largest (China passed Japan a number of years back) economy in the world during the past 28 years.
If we go back further in time (just after WWII), Japan was occupied by America under the guidance of General Douglas MacArthur. Japan learned American business principles and melded them with Japanese cultural elements to spark the post-war devastated country back to life. Reconstruction of a country was quite an undertaking and the Japanese embraced a new East meets West business model to aid in the country's economic turnaround. I remember as a boy in the mid 1960s that if a product said "Made in Japan" most Americans would consider it a symbol of poor quality. But the Japanese studied the "best business and manufacturing" practices from around the world and were open minded to adapt their business model to a changing world market. The Japanese did their homework and under the guidance of a well respected Japanese "Elite Bureaucracy" charged onto the world business stage in the 1970s with very high quality products that were well adapted to what the consumer wanted in the US and other developed world economies.
In America in the mid-1970s, gas and oil prices had shot up due to the oil embargo and ensuing shortages in 1973. Americans didn't want big gas guzzling cars and the Japanese had manufactured smaller, well made, fuel-efficient cars. Their auto exports to the US boomed and Japan's economy became a juggernaut. It seemed that every product they sold were better quality than what was made in America. American business people wanted to know how the Japanese pulled off this economic "miracle". The sheer size of the US market and economy was a perfect counterpart for the booming Japanese manufacturing model. There was a lot of US complaining about Japanese trade and export practices after a good decade of Japanese mammoth economic growth. But this did little to dampen the Japanese business powerhouse. Then their economy crashed. Something popped Japans's bubble and it still has not been able to reproduce even moderate economic growth (over 30 years!). So what went wrong? And also, why am I even telling you this story and what is its significance to the present US political/economic/societal story?
So what did go wrong and more importantly, why despite all of their government's efforts they can't produce even moderate economic growth. Japan's Central Bank has artificially held interest rates at zero or negative for decades - the impact is negligible. So what happened? Powerful economic growth with tremendous wealth creation led to massive asset price inflation. Rampant speculation and massive borrowing led their stock market and real estate markets to dizzying heights. Just like a game of musical chairs, when the "music" stops and financial confidence is lost, lending ceases and down fall markets and assets. A classic bubble bursting.
But why can't Japan get their economic act in gear? There are a number of reasons. Firstly, Japan's elite bureaucracy attempted to protect the home economy during the initial, powerful economic run up (Japan still protects it's home markets) - bottom line, too much government influence (thinking it is doing the "right" thing) squeezes out and limits Japan's private sector capabilities and overall global competitiveness. Secondly, Japan, in a calculating way, puts its government/private sector joint focus on "copying" best manufacturing and business practices around the world. The problem: too much government influence, plus a collective cultural style, plus a "copy-cat but make-it-incrementally-better" style equals limited entrepreneurship and stunted, true, creative innovation. Thirdly and most importantly, they had and still have a protected financial system - minimal or no foreign competition. By protecting the financial system, the pricing of capital and the efficient movement of capital into the right hands in the private sector never evolved properly. This key problem exists today. Lastly, the Japanese had seen their economy grow for 30 years. They never had an economic bust until the bubble burst. They never learned to fix and restructure themselves in a dynamic and efficient way. The US has stumbled many times economically over the past 100 years. But America has learned to fix itself. That expertise has massive value.
In the next post, I will delve more into the significance of Japan's problems and what we need to learn and understand about them in relation to America's present economic, political and societal position.
Post 5A Short Version "Happy 2017...If it feels chaotic, that's a beautiful thing."
1. A vast plethora of opportunities are available under Trump.
2. "Have's", whether democratic or republican, will be best positioned to take advantage of these opportunities - especially those of a money-making nature.
3. Ironically, the chance at positive change is more available under Trump. The apple cart is knocked over and the economic and societal stagnation driven by the status quo of the past is being shaken and stirred.
4. Trump is simply delivering on what he said he was going to do. And he is a business person engaging in a "negotiation" on elements he is focused upon.
5. If you are blinded by anger (focused on Trump's policies, philosophies and ego), you will lose sight of the forest for the trees - specifically your chance to effect positive change and the advancement of unique opportunities.
6. Thankfully, the Washington bureaucracy (both parties) and it's self-serving, hypocritical model is under fire.
7. A more robust and healthy economy will create a powerful backdrop for positive, needed change (not the type of misguided, disingenuous, politician driven change). However, if "Have's" are selfish and "Have-not's" are not aware of and educated upon what and how things need to be fixed/adjusted then a huge opportunity will be missed.
Post 5 - Happy 2017... If it feels chaotic, that's a beautiful thing.
So I have yakked a lot in the first 4 posts about embracing change. President Trump may have not been your choice for President and on top of that, you might not like him as a person. You may even really dislike him. Sometimes our anger and frustration gets in the way of our seeing the big picture. We can not see the opportunities that can emerge from critical change catalysts. If you can look past the political and social knee-jerk reactions presented in the press, you will be able to better see both present and near-term opportunities given President Trump being sworn into office.
President Trump does not have a scattered game plan (with malice at it's core) as presented by the liberal media. Recognize that many of the initial positions he takes are really just part of a negotiating tactic that a sophisticated business person would deploy. He is identifying a starting point for a "business" negotiation that is advantageous to him (and to the US for that matter). Some sound very extreme, like dropping trade agreements such as NAFTA which sounds highly protectionism-oriented. NAFTA will just be a re-negotiation of the original deal. His goal is to shock and manipulate the other negotiating parties into focusing on his starting point. He wants to keep them off balance and then for them to be "appreciative" even when the end negotiation favors the US. I will go into more detail in future posts on critical issues such as trade; manufacturing; immigration; education; defense; the environment; etc. Remember, he is not a polished politician (that's actually a big check in the positive column). The uncertainty that is created works to his advantage. That same uncertainty unsettles a lot of people. Many "Have's" just see this type of maneuvering as an opportunity - nothing more and nothing less. The "Have's" I am talking about are democrats, republicans, US citizens, foreign citizens, etc. The "Have's" that are democrats may pay Trump a lot of lip service in the public press but behind the scenes are quickly maneuvering like republican "Have's". There is no discernible difference in their approach and tactics. They will identify opportunities and move forward on them.
Also, let me clarify the word "opportunity". If you asked a "Have" what does the word "opportunity" mean to them, the majority would equate the word with "money-making". Because I have a business background and specifically I worked on Wall Street, you may think I am only talking about opportunity in that money-making context. I am not. I would include financial gain in my equation, but more importantly, I am also talking about the opportunity for positive societal, environmental, educational, international/cultural and business change. I would include the following sub-categories as being critically important to focus on: healthcare, human rights, gender, racial, have-not, immigration, etc.
So, what is so unique about the change potential associated with a Trump presidency? Answers: There is one party in control of Congress and the Presidency (no real log jam). Also, Trump is a business person/entrepreneur having never been elected to any previous office. He's not a trained politician. He negotiates out in the open, dirty laundry and all. It might be unsettling seeing him twitter or speak without a script and with afinite number of vocabulary words but he is stating his thoughts openly, and his style is to dramatically reduce the "politician double-speak". The cabinet has some atypical candidates (that's good). Trump has openly stated that he wants to "drain the swamp". Changing Washington DC (even if ever so slightly) would be a huge positive (and a powerful backdrop for change).
The most important factor that will drive change and the emergence of new opportunities will be a more robust economy. The core republican economic philosophy of less taxes, less regulation, less politicians, and less bureaucracy is going to be the main driver of a healthier and more vigorous economy. The key question will be: what needs to be done not to leave the "Have-nots" further behind and what ensures that positive change in the areas I identified earlier comes to fruition. This will all be covered in detail in future posts.
Best, DP
Post 4a Short Version "Goodnight 2016"
In a free market, capitalistic and democratic society in which we live, optimization or maximization for self is an important underlying element. In America, another important tenant is one of give-back.
The "Haves", by definition "have more", are looked at many times as not doing enough. When it comes to money and material wealth commitment (charity, taxes,etc), they are quite generous. However, when it comes to legitimate time commitment and knowledge transfer, they are highly deficient. There is no law or anything in stone that states that someone with knowledge needs to share their insights. But it is the key ingredient to truly addressing the "Have/Have-Not" growing imbalance in the US and the world.
There are many people in the US and the world that profit mightily (power and money) by keeping this contentious "Have/Have-Not" negative dynamic in place. My "100 posts" will hopefully shed light on many of the critical details and challenges that all of us face in life.
Post 4 - Goodnight 2016...
I wanted to start Post 4 with a clarification of a point I made in Post 2.
"...that no matter which candidate was elected, there is still a tremendous amount that needs to be done (well beyond what one citizen i.e. the president can do) to tackle the expanding issues and problems that we Americans face. The most specific and core issue is that the existing establishment (political and corporate) is doing very little to truly address substantive issues and problems. The philosophies and actions of those that have a bigger say in society in the US create motion, but many times it is a smokescreen that blinds the vast majority of citizens. Things happen and millions are unsure why or misinterpret what is happening. This is not a conspiracy but a silent understanding among those in power and money positions to serve themselves."
It's the last line of that paragraph. Most wealthy people, powerful people, "Haves" with knowledge and so on are desirous to serve themselves. It doesn't make them the enemy. Many attempt to help or want to help, but are unsure or confused as to what actually works. The typical way to "help" is to give money. Some "Haves" give money to simply relieve their guilt of having so much. Some give for the tax deduction. Some give to have others cascade thanks upon them. And, most give money because they want to help, but they want to minimize their time commitment so as not to alter their own personal optimization path. Some "Haves" don't even want to give money. They believe that if they were able to figure things out and have already paid their dues to find a more rewarding path in life then anyone else should be able to. This group of "Haves" may actually believe that by lending a hand to "Have-nots" that they are really hurting them.
The "Have" money-giving dynamic sounds kind of harsh but it is true. However, there exists a significant yet misguided generosity that emanates from the "Haves". The top 1% of income earners in the US account for over 40% of income taxes paid in America. The top 20% of earners account for over 84% of income taxes paid. When you factor in the idea that the top 20% of income earners (plus corporate giving) account for the lion's share of charitable giving, a significant percentage of overall "Have" money is being put into the coffers for the potential good of the public. While working on Wall Street, I witnessed significant monetary (and slight time) generosity. Interestingly, while growing up in Philadelphia, I can clearly remember the "Have-not" goodwill within my neighborhood, but there was not runaway generosity so to speak of. People had your back in a physical/protection sense but there was a limitation with respect to any type of monetary support (I guess it was not expected).
While working in a parking lot as a kid, I did not envy those with really nice cars. I didn't want to have the surface, material wealth they had. What interested me was to understand their path, or my own potential path, to have the option to pursue an abundant life. The "know-how" is what intrigued me. It was more of a curiosity than an obsession. If an abundant pathway was unattainable for me, it would have been fine. I would have held no animosity for the "Haves" of my childhood time.
There has not been a good give-back (or transfer of knowledge) model or mechanism that has existed in the modern era. So where do we go from here? Firstly, we need to ignore the hypocrites (those with more, that pretend they are fighting for those with less and that make a business out of their make-believe support of "Have-nots"). Secondly, we must not condemn or vilify the "Haves" that want to help but have not found their "way". At the end of the day, we are all humans that are in this together. Helping yourself is an important concept to embrace. If you have been able to help yourself, showing others the way to empower themselves will be a concept more powerful than what any President or policy can create.
In the next 96 posts there will be insights, ideas, explanations, interpretations, opinions, answers, stumblings, idea risk-taking and repetition (haha...I am known to repeat myself). There will be no finger-pointing (or worst case - minimized finger-pointing). This is not productive and is negative, wasted energy. Disclaimer: I must admit that many politicians are the ultimate hypocrites, so I might not be able to fully help myself if there is some finger pointing in that direction. The bottom line is that I will do my best to lay out my thoughts in a practical and positive manner to help others.
Post 3a - Short version "Trump is now the President"
A new political and philosophical landscape is about to be in place in America.
The expectation of President Trump cutting corporate and individual taxes and also, reducing regulations across many fronts has helped kick off a strong financial market rally.
The abundant and growing governmental influence (taxes and regs) on our lives has stifled the American Dream. It contains and constrains and confines a better path forward.
A powerful US economy is a great backdrop for truly addressing critical issues and problems in America. But it is a backdrop element only, not an actual change or fix.
Many charities, nonprofits, corporations, and individuals have attempted to "help" with the myriad of problems and issues that face America, but in aggregate it has been ineffective and a new path to help will emerge.